Measure is unceasing


2023/01/29: I’ve updated the forecasting and research pages in this website, they should now be a bit more up to date.

2022/12/09: Holden Karnofsky doesn’t answer comments.

2022/11/20: I’ve updated my tally of EA funding @ Some data on the stock of EA™ funding. It’s possible that the comparison with the now absent FTX funding might be enlightening to readers.

2022/10/31: I’ve added an email subscription option for this blog, as well as for

2022/08/30: Per this blogpost, I’m making my public key available here. I can be contacted at nuno dot sempere dot lh at protonmail dot com.

2022/08/14: Updated blog rss to use the correct date. Thanks, kind stranger who left a tip on my Admonymous.

2022/07/05: I am offering cancellation insurance and offering to bet on the success or failure of projects.

2022/04/01: Here is a visualization of OpenPhil’s grant allocation so far:

2022/04/01: I post a really inside-jokeish April fools' newsletter.

2022/03/17: I am working on a doc outlining things I’m confused about w/r to OpenPhil. If this is something which may interest you feel free to reach out. Update: I’ve now published some stuff here (also backed up here).

2022/03/08: Scott Alexander wants your Google Drive documents

2022/03/07: Misha and Gavin post the results of a new investigation that finds that Good Judgment claims about superforecasters vs experts were greatly exaggerated

2022/02/25: It was a sunny winter night, and the utilitarians had gathered in their optimal lair

2022/02/20: At the recommendation of Misha Yagudin, I buy around $1.5k worth of shares of Yes in the Will Russia Invade Ukraine in 2022? market, moving the yes price from 38% to 50%. A few hours later, someone starts offering $40k @ 45%. Update: We buy $20k worth of shares for the invasion of Ukraine.

2022/02/18: I write about what my computer setup looks like, here

image of my computer setup

PS: I am also on Twitter.