Measure is unceasing

For forecasting related research, see forecasting

Current projects

I’m currently doing private consulting, and writting up my disillusionment with EA:

Past projects

Estimation of values

I spent a few years of my life grappling with EA (effective altruism) being nominally about doing the most good, but it not having good tools to identify and prioritize across possible interventions. Eventually I gave up when I got it through my thick head that despite my earlier hopes, there wasn’t much demand for the real version of this—as opposed to the fake version of pretending to evaluate stuff, and pretending to be “impact oriented”. Still, I think it’s an interesting body of research.

Red teaming

If you are trying to be as effective as you can, wouldn’t you like someone to point out where you might be going wrong? Not so!

Shapley values:

If you care about doing good together, you should care about how to coordinate on who does which projects. Shapley values solve this, as does adjusting the counterfactual value to be more like Shapley values. I named my consultancy after this concept.

Economic models of social movement growth:

You can make progress on gnarly economics questions by throwing compute at it. Unfortunately, reality is complicated enough that these models won’t capture all the assumptions you care about, and so might not be all that informative in real life.

Categorization of new causes:

Let’s just create some obvious infrastructure to track suggestions that people make!

Technological discontinuities:

People are talking about “technological discontinuities”. How often do they happen?


Is this AI thing going to doom us all?

The fate of social movements:

Global health and development, and as part of that, survey-making

I also have some minor pieces which I still want to index: