Measure is unceasing

Most of my research can be found on the EA Forum. For forecasting related research, see forecasting

Current research

Besides forecasting (of probabilities), a major thread in my research is estimation (of values). Pieces related to this topic are:

Relatedly, I have an interest in red teaming,

Past projects

In the past, I’ve been much more eclectic, and explored a variety of topics, such as:

Shapley values:

Economic models of social movement growth:

Categorization of new causes:

Technological discontinuities:


The fate of social movements:

Global health and development, and as part of that, survey-making

I also have some minor pieces which I still want to index: