Measure is unceasing


Magic ball tell us all.

— Misha Yagudin


My forecasting group is known as Samotsvety. You can read more about it here.


I was reasonably well-known for my monthly forecasting newsletter. It can be found both on Substack and on the EA Forum. Besides its mothly issues, I’ve also written:


I have a few in depth pieces on forecasting, many written during my time at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute, and previously as an independent researcher,

I also have a few minor pieces:

I also mantain this database of prediction markets.

Bayesianism fundamentals

I also discussed some of these considerations in Hurdles of using forecasting as a tool for making sense of AI progress. They turn out to be important.


I have occasionally advised philanthropic funders—mostly from the effective altruism community—on forecasting related topics and projects.


I did a bunch of work around Squiggle, a language for creating quick probability estimates. You can read about this here. Unsatisfied with it, I tried out many different languages and wrote my own version in C.