Measure is unceasing

Forecasting

To do: add references to Samotsvety Forecasting, Quantified Uncertainty tooling.

Newsletter

I am perhaps most well-known for my monthly forecasting newsletter. It can be found both on Substack and on the EA Forum. Besides its mothly issues, I’ve also written:

Research

As part of my research at the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute, and previously as an independent researcher, I have a few in depth pieces on forecasting:

I also have a few minor pieces:

I also mantain this database of prediction markets.

Funding