Measure is unceasing

Forecasting Newsletter: July 2020.



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Prediction Markets & Forecasting Platforms.

Ordered in subjective order of importance:

    # Variable: Number of ice creams an unsupervised child has consumed, 
    # when left alone in an ice cream shop.   

    # Current time (hours passed)  

    # Scenario with lots of uncertainty
    w_1 = 0.75 ## Weight for this scenario.
    min_uncertain(t) = t*2
    max_uncertain(t) = t*20

    # Optimistic scenario
    w_2 = 0.25 ## Weight for the optimistic scenario
    min_optimistic(t) = 1*t
    max_optimistic(t) = 3*t
    mean(t) = (min_optimistic(t) + max_optimistic(t)/2)
    stdev(t) = t*(2)^(1/2)

    # Overall guess
    ## A long-tailed lognormal for the uncertain scenario
    ## and a tight normal for the optimistic scenario

    mm(min_uncertain(t) to max_uncertain(t), normal(mean(t), stdev(t)), [w_1, w_2])

    ## Compare with: mm(2 to 20, normal(2, 1.4142), [0.75, 0.25])

New undertakings

Negative Examples.

News & Hard to Categorize Content.

Long Content.

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“horses for courses, the way you do the forecast, the way you present it depends on what you’re trying to achieve with it”