In 2023…
- Forecasting Newsletter for November and December 2022
- Can GPT-3 produce new ideas? Partially automating Robin Hanson and others
- Prevalence of belief in “human biodiversity” amongst self-reported EA respondents in the 2020 SlateStarCodex Survey
- Interim Update on QURI’s Work on EA Cause Area Candidates
- There will always be a Voigt-Kampff test
- My highly personal skepticism braindump on existential risk from artificial intelligence.
- An in-progress experiment to test how Laplace’s rule of succession performs in practice.
- Effective Altruism No Longer an Expanding Empire.
- no matter where you stand
- Just-in-time Bayesianism
- Impact markets as a mechanism for not loosing your edge
- Straightforwardly eliciting probabilities from GPT-3
- Inflation-proof assets
- A Bayesian Adjustment to Rethink Priorities' Welfare Range Estimates
- A computable version of Solomonoff induction
- Use of “I’d bet” on the EA Forum is mostly metaphorical
- Winners of the Squiggle Experimentation and 80,000 Hours Quantification Challenges
- What happens in Aaron Sorkin’s The Newsroom
- Estimation for sanity checks
- Find a beta distribution that fits your desired confidence interval
- Some estimation work in the horizon
- Soothing software
- What is forecasting?
- Things you should buy, quantified
- General discussion thread
- A Soothing Frontend for the Effective Altruism Forum
- A flaw in a simple version of worldview diversification
- Review of Epoch’s Scaling transformative autoregressive models
- Updating in the face of anthropic effects is possible