Measure is unceasing

Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize


There is already a fair amount of interest around Effective Altruism in judgemental forecasting. We think there’s a whole lot of good research left to be done.

The valuable research seems to be all over the place. We could use people to speculate on research directions, outline incentive mechanisms, try novel forecasting questions with friends, and outline new questions that deserve forecasts. Some of this requires a fair amount of background knowledge, but a lot doesn’t. 

The EA and LW communities have a history of using prizes to encourage work in exciting areas. We’re going to try one in forecasting research. If this goes well, we’d like to continue and expand this going forward.


This prize will total $1000 between multiple recipients, with a minimum first place prize of $500. We will aim for 2-5 recipients in total. The prize will be paid for by the Quantified Uncertainty Research Institute (QURI).


To enter, first make a public post online between now and Jan 1, 2021. We encourage you to either post directly or make a link post to either LessWrong or the EA Forum. Second, complete this form, also before Jan 1, 2021. 

Research Feedback

If you’d like feedback or would care to discuss possible research projects, please do reach out! To do so, fill out this form. We’re happy to advise at any stages of the process. 


The judges will be AlexRJL, Nuño Sempere, Eric Neyman, Tamay Besiroglu, Linch Zhang and Ozzie Gooen. The details of the judging process will vary depending on how many submissions we get. We’ll try to select winners for their importance, novelty, and presentation.

Some Possible Research Areas

Areas of work we would be excited to see explored: