I will bet on your success on Manifold Markets

If you create a market on Manifold Markets on the outcome of an undertaking I will bet on its eventual success or failure. Because project creators or owners tend to be too optimistic about their success, this means that I will most often bet against your success.

This betting allows you to obtain a rough probability for the success of your project. Prediction markets aren’t perfect, but a 5% is markedly different from a 50% or from a 90%.

Some examples of past markets in this spirit:

• Will Petra Kosonen submit her thesis by July 6?
• Will QURI receive a grant from the SFF in the first half of this year?
• Will I receive a grant of $50,000 USD before June 1st, 2022?
• Will I find a new job by the end of August 2022?

To let me know about a new such market you want me to bet on, you can find me on Twitter or find my email in the gossip section of this website.

Brave people who have taken me up on this offer:

• @BenRCongdon for this market.
• @Cosmojg for this market.
• Gavriel K, for Will I start a blog this month?