Site map
- blog
- 2019
- 06 · 13 · EA Mental Health Survey: Results and Analysis.
- 10
- 04 · Why do social movements fail: Two concrete examples.
- 10 · Shapley values: Better than counterfactuals
- 12
- 2020
- 01 · 15 · A review of two free online MIT Global Poverty courses
- 03
- 01 · A review of two books on survey-making
- 10 · Shapley Values II: Philantropic Coordination Theory & other miscellanea.
- 04
- 01 · New Cause Proposal: International Supply Chain Accountability
- 30 · Forecasting Newsletter: April 2020
- 05 · 31 · Forecasting Newsletter: May 2020.
- 07 · 01 · Forecasting Newsletter: June 2020.
- 08 · 01 · Forecasting Newsletter: July 2020.
- 09 · 01 · Forecasting Newsletter: August 2020.
- 10 · 01 · Forecasting Newsletter: September 2020.
- 11
- 01 · Forecasting Newsletter: October 2020.
- 10 · Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions.
- 15 · Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize
- 22 · Predicting the Value of Small Altruistic Projects: A Proof of Concept Experiment.
- 12
- 2021
- 01
- 01 · Forecasting Newsletter: December 2020
- 10 · 2020: Forecasting in Review
- 13 · A Funnel for Cause Candidates
- 02
- 03
- 01 · Forecasting Newsletter: February 2021
- 07 · Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool
- 16 · Relative Impact of the First 10 EA Forum Prize Winners
- 04 · 01 · Forecasting Newsletter: March 2021
- 05 · 01 · Forecasting Newsletter: April 2021
- 06
- 01 · Forecasting Newsletter: May 2021
- 16
- 2018-2019 Long-Term Future Fund Grantees: How did they do?
- What should the norms around privacy and evaluation in the EA community be?
- 24 · Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations
- 07 · 01 · Forecasting Newsletter: June 2021
- 08 · 01 · Forecasting Newsletter: July 2021
- 09
- 10
- 11
- 02 · Forecasting Newsletter: October 2021.
- 08 · A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building
- 15 · Simple comparison polling to create utility functions
- 25 · Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation
- 12
- 2022
- 01
- 02
- 03 · Forecasting Newsletter: January 2022
- 06 · Splitting the timeline as an extinction risk intervention
- 08 · We are giving $10k as forecasting micro-grants
- 18 · Five steps for quantifying speculative interventions
- 03
- 05 · Forecasting Newsletter: February 2022
- 10 · Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
- 17 · Valuing research works by eliciting comparisons from EA researchers
- 04
- 01 · Forecasting Newsletter: April 2222
- 05 · Forecasting Newsletter: March 2022
- 06 · A quick note on the value of donations
- 07 · Open Philanthopy allocation by cause area
- 16 · Better scoring rules
- 17 · Simple Squiggle
- 05
- 01 · EA Forum Lowdown: April 2022
- 10 · Forecasting Newsletter: April 2022
- 20 · Infinite Ethics 101: Stochastic and Statewise Dominance as a Backup Decision Theory when Expected Values Fail
- 06
- 03 · Forecasting Newsletter: May 2022
- 14 · The Tragedy of Calisto and Melibea
- 16 · A Critical Review of Open Philanthropy’s Bet On Criminal Justice Reform
- 07
- 04 · Cancellation insurance
- 05 · I will bet on your success on Manifold Markets
- 09 · The Maximum Vindictiveness Strategy
- 12 · Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022
- 23 · Some thoughts on Turing.jl
- 27 · How much would I have to run to lose 20 kilograms?
- 08
- 04 · $1,000 Squiggle Experimentation Challenge
- 08 · Forecasting Newsletter: July 2022
- 10 · A concern about the "evolutionary anchor" of Ajeya Cotra's report
- 18 · What do Americans think 'cutlery' means?
- 20 · Introduction to Fermi estimates
- 31 · A comment on Cox's theorem and probabilistic inductivism.
- 09
- 02 · Simple estimation examples in Squiggle
- 10 · Forecasting Newsletter: August 2022.
- 11 · salary ranges spain
- 12 · An experiment eliciting relative estimates for Open Philanthropy’s 2018 AI safety grants
- 15 · Use distributions to more parsimoniously estimate impact
- 19 · Utilitarianism: An Incomplete Approach
- 23 · $5k challenge to quantify the impact of 80,000 hours' top career paths
- 28 · Use a less coarse analysis of AMF beneficiary age and consider counterfactual deaths
- 10
- 03 · Samotsvety Nuclear Risk update October 2022
- 10 · Five slightly more hardcore Squiggle models.
- 12 · Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.
- 17 · Sometimes you give to the commons, and sometimes you take from the commons
- 21 · Brief evaluations of top-10 billionnaires
- 27 · Are flimsy evaluations worth it?
- 31 · Brief thoughts on my personal research strategy
- 11
- 04 · Metaforecast late 2022 update: GraphQL API, Charts, better infrastructure behind the scenes.
- 06 · Tracking the money flows in forecasting
- 15 · Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022
- 20 · Some data on the stock of EA™ funding
- 28 · List of past fraudsters similar to SBF
- 12
- 2023
- 01
- 07 · Forecasting Newsletter for November and December 2022
- 11 · Can GPT-3 produce new ideas? Partially automating Robin Hanson and others
- 16 · Prevalence of belief in "human biodiversity" amongst self-reported EA respondents in the 2020 SlateStarCodex Survey
- 19 · Interim Update on QURI's Work on EA Cause Area Candidates
- 21 · There will always be a Voigt-Kampff test
- 23 · My highly personal skepticism braindump on existential risk from artificial intelligence.
- 30
- 02
- 03 · no matter where you stand
- 04 · Just-in-time Bayesianism
- 07 · Impact markets as a mechanism for not loosing your edge
- 09 · Straightforwardly eliciting probabilities from GPT-3
- 11 · Inflation-proof assets
- 19 · A Bayesian Adjustment to Rethink Priorities' Welfare Range Estimates
- 03
- 01 · A computable version of Solomonoff induction
- 02 · Use of “I'd bet” on the EA Forum is mostly metaphorical
- 08 · Winners of the Squiggle Experimentation and 80,000 Hours Quantification Challenges
- 10
- 15 · Find a beta distribution that fits your desired confidence interval
- 20 · Some estimation work in the horizon
- 27 · Soothing software
- 04
- 03 · What is forecasting?
- 06 · Things you should buy, quantified
- 08 · General discussion thread
- 18 · A Soothing Frontend for the Effective Altruism Forum
- 25 · A flaw in a simple version of worldview diversification
- 28 · Review of Epoch's *Scaling transformative autoregressive models*
- 05
- 11 · Updating in the face of anthropic effects is possible
- 29 · Relative values for animal suffering and ACE Top Charities
- 06
- 17 · People's choices determine a partial ordering over people's desirability
- 26 · Betting and consent
- 07
- 13 · Some melancholy about the value of my work depending on decisions by others beyond my control
- 19 · Why are we not harder, better, faster, stronger?
- 08
- 01 · squiggle.c
- 14 · Webpages I am making available to my corner of the internet
- 19 · Incorporate keeping track of accuracy into X (previously Twitter)
- 09
- 05 · Quick thoughts on Manifund's application to Open Philanthropy
- 15 · Count words in <50 lines of C
- 10 · 15 · Brief thoughts on CEA's stewardship of the EA Forum
- 11
- 12
- 2024
- 02 · 25 · A Bayesian Nerd-Snipe
- 03 · 05 · Unflattering aspects of Effective Altruism
- 06 · 02 · Simple electoral college simulation
- 08 · 30 · No, the country of "no taxation without representation" doesn’t take a 30% tax on payments to foreigners
- 09 · 10 · What's the chance your startup will succeed?
- 10 · 16 · The share of the surface of the earth in very urban areas is roughly ~0.3%
- 12
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