Site map
- blog
- 2019
- 06 / 13 / EA Mental Health Survey: Results and Analysis.
- 10
- 04 / Why do social movements fail: Two concrete examples.
- 10 / Shapley values: Better than counterfactuals
- 12
- 2020
- 01 / 15 / A review of two free online MIT Global Poverty courses
- 03
- 01 / A review of two books on survey-making
- 10 / Shapley Values II: Philantropic Coordination Theory & other miscellanea.
- 04
- 01 / New Cause Proposal: International Supply Chain Accountability
- 30 / Forecasting Newsletter: April 2020
- 05 / 31 / Forecasting Newsletter: May 2020.
- 07 / 01 / Forecasting Newsletter: June 2020.
- 08 / 01 / Forecasting Newsletter: July 2020.
- 09 / 01 / Forecasting Newsletter: August 2020.
- 10 / 01 / Forecasting Newsletter: September 2020.
- 11
- 01 / Forecasting Newsletter: October 2020.
- 10 / Incentive Problems With Current Forecasting Competitions.
- 15 / Announcing the Forecasting Innovation Prize
- 22 / Predicting the Value of Small Altruistic Projects: A Proof of Concept Experiment.
- 12
- 2021
- 01
- 01 / Forecasting Newsletter: December 2020
- 10 / 2020: Forecasting in Review
- 13 / A Funnel for Cause Candidates
- 02
- 03
- 01 / Forecasting Newsletter: February 2021
- 07 / Introducing Metaforecast: A Forecast Aggregator and Search Tool
- 16 / Relative Impact of the First 10 EA Forum Prize Winners
- 04 / 01 / Forecasting Newsletter: March 2021
- 05 / 01 / Forecasting Newsletter: April 2021
- 06
- 01 / Forecasting Newsletter: May 2021
- 16
- 2018-2019 Long-Term Future Fund Grantees: How did they do?
- What should the norms around privacy and evaluation in the EA community be?
- 24 / Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations
- 07 / 01 / Forecasting Newsletter: June 2021
- 08 / 01 / Forecasting Newsletter: July 2021
- 09
- 10
- 11
- 02 / Forecasting Newsletter: October 2021.
- 08 / A Model of Patient Spending and Movement Building
- 15 / Simple comparison polling to create utility functions
- 25 / Pathways to impact for forecasting and evaluation
- 12
- 2022
- 01
- 02
- 03 / Forecasting Newsletter: January 2022
- 06 / Splitting the timeline as an extinction risk intervention
- 08 / We are giving $10k as forecasting micro-grants
- 18 / Five steps for quantifying speculative interventions
- 03
- 05 / Forecasting Newsletter: February 2022
- 10 / Samotsvety Nuclear Risk Forecasts — March 2022
- 17 / Valuing research works by eliciting comparisons from EA researchers
- 04
- 01 / Forecasting Newsletter: April 2222
- 05 / Forecasting Newsletter: March 2022
- 06 / A quick note on the value of donations
- 07 / Open Philanthopy allocation by cause area
- 16 / Better scoring rules
- 17 / Simple Squiggle
- 05
- 01 / EA Forum Lowdown: April 2022
- 10 / Forecasting Newsletter: April 2022
- 20 / Infinite Ethics 101: Stochastic and Statewise Dominance as a Backup Decision Theory when Expected Values Fail
- 06
- 03 / Forecasting Newsletter: May 2022
- 14 / The Tragedy of Calisto and Melibea
- 16 / A Critical Review of Open Philanthropy’s Bet On Criminal Justice Reform
- 07
- 04 / Cancellation insurance
- 05 / I will bet on your success on Manifold Markets
- 09 / The Maximum Vindictiveness Strategy
- 12 / Forecasting Newsletter: June 2022
- 23 / Some thoughts on Turing.jl
- 27 / How much would I have to run to lose 20 kilograms?
- 08
- 04 / $1,000 Squiggle Experimentation Challenge
- 08 / Forecasting Newsletter: July 2022
- 10 / A concern about the "evolutionary anchor" of Ajeya Cotra's report
- 18 / What do Americans think 'cutlery' means?
- 20 / Introduction to Fermi estimates
- 31 / A comment on Cox's theorem and probabilistic inductivism.
- 09
- 02 / Simple estimation examples in Squiggle
- 10 / Forecasting Newsletter: August 2022.
- 11 / salary ranges spain
- 12 / An experiment eliciting relative estimates for Open Philanthropy’s 2018 AI safety grants
- 15 / Use distributions to more parsimoniously estimate impact
- 19 / Utilitarianism: An Incomplete Approach
- 23 / $5k challenge to quantify the impact of 80,000 hours' top career paths
- 28 / Use a less coarse analysis of AMF beneficiary age and consider counterfactual deaths
- 10
- 03 / Samotsvety Nuclear Risk update October 2022
- 10 / Five slightly more hardcore Squiggle models.
- 12 / Forecasting Newsletter: September 2022.
- 17 / Sometimes you give to the commons, and sometimes you take from the commons
- 21 / Brief evaluations of top-10 billionnaires
- 27 / Are flimsy evaluations worth it?
- 31 / Brief thoughts on my personal research strategy
- 11
- 04 / Metaforecast late 2022 update: GraphQL API, Charts, better infrastructure behind the scenes.
- 06 / Tracking the money flows in forecasting
- 15 / Forecasting Newsletter for October 2022
- 20 / Some data on the stock of EA™ funding
- 28 / List of past fraudsters similar to SBF
- 12
- 2023
- 01
- 07 / Forecasting Newsletter for November and December 2022
- 11 / Can GPT-3 produce new ideas? Partially automating Robin Hanson and others
- 16 / Prevalence of belief in "human biodiversity" amongst self-reported EA respondents in the 2020 SlateStarCodex Survey
- 19 / Interim Update on QURI's Work on EA Cause Area Candidates
- 21 / There will always be a Voigt-Kampff test
- 23 / My highly personal skepticism braindump on existential risk from artificial intelligence.
- 30
- 02
- 03 / no matter where you stand
- 04 / Just-in-time Bayesianism
- 07 / Impact markets as a mechanism for not loosing your edge
- 09 / Straightforwardly eliciting probabilities from GPT-3
- 11 / Inflation-proof assets
- 19 / A Bayesian Adjustment to Rethink Priorities' Welfare Range Estimates
- 03
- 01 / A computable version of Solomonoff induction
- 02 / Use of “I'd bet” on the EA Forum is mostly metaphorical
- 08 / Winners of the Squiggle Experimentation and 80,000 Hours Quantification Challenges
- 10
- 15 / Find a beta distribution that fits your desired confidence interval
- 20 / Some estimation work in the horizon
- 27 / Soothing software
- 04
- 03 / What is forecasting?
- 06 / Things you should buy, quantified
- 08 / General discussion thread
- 18 / A Soothing Frontend for the Effective Altruism Forum
- 25 / A flaw in a simple version of worldview diversification
- 28 / Review of Epoch's *Scaling transformative autoregressive models*
- 05 / 11 / Updating in the face of anthropic effects is possible
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